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Great (as always) post by John Gruber on the upcoming iPhone release (he’s nearly always right). Beyond the details, this particular passage relating to the Flip camera is worth taking note of:

The Flip succeeded in the same way the DVD player succeeded. It jumped the life cycle adoption chasm by improving people’s lives, while not forcing them to learn new skills (more on this, and its relationship to music: HERE).

Of course, the iPod/iPhone crossed the chasm the only other way any product or service can: it improved people’s lives by a factor of ten, even while forcing them to learn new skills.

Now, however, by achieving dominance in the sector, and – thus – having a customer base who has acquired the skills, Apple can start hopping chasms like mad. The first being the addition of the video camera that Mr. Gruber references above.

This is bad news for Flip.

Just as the still camera in the iPhone eliminated the need for people to carry a second camera for casual pictures, the video function will do the same.

We own several Flip cameras currently, and I can pretty much guarantee that once the new iPhone with the video function is released, our Flips will be relegated to the same junk box where our other still cameras and video cameras have gone to die (it’s perched in the basement upon – not kidding – a VHS player).

As an aside, Flip could have at least forestalled their demise by not having such an utter crap UI for their video management tool. Of course, Apple has that covered pretty well.

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